South Korean media Thelec recently reported that next year’s OLED iPhone shipments are forecast to be between 160 million and 180 million units. This is the forecast value of all OLED iPhones including the iPhone 13 series in the second half of next year and the iPhone 12 this year. 160 million to 180 million units compared to this year's forecast of 100 million OLED iPhone shipments, an increase of about 60 to 80%. Apple will use OLED panels across the board from this year’s iPhone 12 series, and next year’s iPhone 13 will also use OLED.
SDC, the No. 1 supplier of Apple's OLED, predicts that Apple will ship 180 million Taichung next year, and 140 million of panel shipments. According to forecasts, LG Display (hereinafter LGD) will be 30 million units and BOE will be 10 million units.
LGD also looks forward to supplying more than 40 million iPhone OLED panels next year. In this forecast, SDC is about 120 to 130 million units, and BOE is 10 million units.
For LGD, 40 million units have doubled this year's 20 million units, and the proportion has increased slightly from 20%.
The difference between LGD and SDC's forecasts is about 10 million units, and the forecasts of the two companies both take into account the capacity and self-expectations of competitors.
Although the two companies' forecasts for BOE shipments are both 5% and 10 million units, they may not be accurate. BOE has conducted two rounds of iPhone OLED panel certification this year, all of which ended in failure, and will need to re-certify in the first half of next year. BOE has set a target of 20 million iPhone OLED shipments next year.
Two of the four iPhone 13 series currently under development by Apple plan to use LTPO TFT panels. This is also the technology required for a 120Hz frame rate. On-cell panels with built-in touch electrodes that cancel the TSP will also increase from two models this year to four models. Although BOE has supplied Huawei Mate 40 On-cell panels before, LTPO TFT is technically inferior to the two panel manufacturers in South Korea.
China's panel production capacity is estimated to account for 55% of the world in 2020
Liang Xinqing, secretary-general of the LCD branch of the China Optics and Optoelectronics Industry Association, said in Chongqing on the 18th that it is estimated that by 2020, China's panel production capacity will account for 55% of the world. 2020 Chongqing Micro LED Industry Innovation Forum and Konka Semiconductor Display Technology and Product Launch Conference were held on the same day.
Liang Xinqing made the aforementioned introduction at the meeting and revealed the latest statistics of the association: the global display device output value in the first three quarters of 2020 was US$82.723 billion, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year; the shipment area was 178 million square meters, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year. The data for the first three quarters of 2020 in Mainland China shows that the shipment area of TFT-LCD is 97.01 million square meters, accounting for 54.5% of the world, and the output value is 26.685 billion U.S. dollars; the shipment area of AMOLED is 1.09 million square meters, accounting for 0.6% of the world, and the output value is 27.09. One hundred million U.S. dollars.
His analysis showed that the industrial structure said that Japan's current situation is to control the upstream core technology, synchronize and affect the development of the industry, and has not given up the development of the entire industry chain. South Korea’s OLED is currently the world’s leader, forming the competitiveness of the entire industry chain, and will never give up its status as a display power. Taiwan, China will increase the added value of LCD, open up new application markets, seek opportunities for transformation, and hope that the industry will stabilize. China's mainland has achieved advantages in its production capacity, but its technological structure is single, and the competitiveness of the entire industry chain has not yet been formed. However, its advantages are clear policy orientation, strong investment capabilities, and strong local market support.
The integration of the global display industry will continue to affect the pattern change. Liang Xinqing believes that investment in mainland China is continuing, and it is the most active region in the global display industry, with new investment, various integrations, and new production lines ramping up. China's display industry should maintain its strength, maximize its strengths and avoid weaknesses, grasp the potential of LCD technology, and improve display performance while maintaining cost advantages; pay close attention to new display technologies such as MicroLED, earnestly research and judge, invest within its capacity, and strive to lead.
According to Ouyang Zhongcan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mini/Micro LED technology, that is, LED miniaturization and matrix technology. Micro LED chip size is less than 50 microns, pixel pitch is less than P0.3, and its display product size covers a wide range, including TV, mobile phone, car, commercial display, VR, wearable, etc. The MicroLED market is estimated to be 6.5 billion US dollars in 2025.